Memory Cycle Monitor
Latest · USD
Memory & storage · DRAM · HBM · NAND · HDD

Record profits, falling stocks: the memory trade since June

Seven companies that make the chips and drives AI data centers store data on. Every one posted record revenue in its latest quarter, and every one trades 25–63% below the all-time high it set in June 2026. All prices and financials on this page are in US dollars. This page puts the books next to the share prices and lays out why the market is selling.

Latest prices · all in USD

Bar = price as a share of the all-time high. Tap any card for its price chart (1D to 1Y, candles or line).

AI companies · USD

Hyperliquid perps, 24/7. OpenAI (io:OAI) and Anthropic (io:ANTH) are pre-IPO markets run by Entropy: the price is the market's implied company value in billions of dollars (1,920 = $1.92tn), not a share price, and they trade thinly, so treat them as sentiment rather than a valuation. Tap a card for its chart.

Watchlist · crypto, metals, oil · USD

Hyperliquid perpetual markets, all quoted in USD and trading 24/7. Gold is per troy ounce, silver per ounce, oil per barrel. Crude oil = Brent (xyz:BRENTOIL); WTI oil = NYMEX WTI crude (xyz:CL). Change is versus 24 hours ago. Tap a card for its chart.

Indices · points

Hyperliquid index perps, quoted in index points and trading 24/7: S&P 500 (xyz:SP500), Nasdaq 100 (xyz:XYZ100), Nikkei 225 (xyz:JP225) and KOSPI 200 (xyz:KR200, the index SK hynix and Samsung dominate). Outside exchange hours they keep trading, so they can differ from the last official close. Tap a card for its chart.

ETFs · memory, chips and Korea · USD per share

DRAM (Roundhill Memory), SMH (VanEck Semiconductor), SOXL (3× semiconductors), EWY (MSCI South Korea) and KORU (3× South Korea). SOXL and KORU are 3× leveraged daily funds, so they move about three times as much as what they track. Tap a card for its chart.

Market cap · memory and AI companies · USD

Market cap = live price × shares outstanding. Share counts: Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, Nvidia and Applied Optoelectronics from their latest SEC filings (Aug–Oct 2026); SpaceX 13.58bn, Alphabet 12.23bn (all classes), Meta 2.55bn (all classes) and Cerebras 238m shares; SK hynix and Samsung implied from Korea Exchange market caps (Samsung includes its preferred shares); Kioxia after its 1:3 split on 1 Oct. Buybacks change these slowly, so treat caps as accurate to a few percent. Last quarter revenue is each company’s most recent reported quarter (SEC filings and company releases; Samsung is its preliminary July–September figure and covers the whole company, not just memory). Won and yen revenue are converted at that quarter’s average exchange rate, so YoY growth is the company’s reported rate in its own currency. Price/sales = market cap ÷ (last quarter revenue × 4; CXMT’s half-year revenue × 2). CXMT only reports half-yearly so far; its share count (~65bn) is implied from its 3.2tn-yuan debut value at 49 yuan a share, so its cap is approximate. OpenAI and Anthropic are private: their “market cap” is the implied value traded on Hyperliquid, and revenue is not published. Next report dates are the companies’ announced dates where available. Tap a row for its chart.

Key table · scoreboard

Price, peak and valuation

Prices are the latest available, not June figures. June is when each stock set its all-time high; that column shows the peak and its date so you can measure the drawdown. Korean and Japanese shares are converted to USD at each day’s exchange rate, so the USD peak can fall on a different day than the local one, and a stronger won since June has softened the USD drawdown for SK hynix and Samsung. After-hours is the latest US extended-session trade. "Run-rate P/E" = market cap ÷ (latest guided or reported quarterly net income × 4); it assumes profits hold flat for a year, which is exactly what the market doubts. Market caps are approximate (share counts from filings, buybacks ongoing).

Per company

Quarterly revenue and net income, last 3 years

RevenueNet incomeGuidance

Operating and net margin

Operating marginNet margin

Data check · re-verified 15 Oct 2026

How each company's numbers were checked

Every quarter was re-pulled and cross-checked against annual totals. Where a figure looks odd, it is what the company reported, and the reason is below.

CompanySource checkedCross-checkAnomalies and why
MicronSEC filings (XBRL), FQ4-26 8-K4 quarters sum to FY totals; FQ4-26 matches 8-K exactlyFQ2-24 net > operating profit (tax benefit)
SK hynixCompany releases 4Q23, 4Q24, 4Q25, 1Q26, 2Q26Quarters sum to FY23, FY24, FY25 revenue, OP and net2Q26 net ₩93.9tn > revenue ₩79.3tn: ~₩40tn Kioxia-stake gains, confirmed in the company release (118% net margin). 1Q25, 3Q25, 1Q26 also lifted by Kioxia gains
SamsungCompany releases, Korea Times, JoongAng, Notebookcheck2024 and 2025 quarters sum to FY; Jan–Sep 2026 total matchesQ1-26 net corrected to ₩47.22tn (was an estimate). 2023 quarters sum to ₩15.3tn vs ₩15.5tn reported (minority-interest rounding). Q3-26 net not yet released
SanDiskSEC filings, FQ4-26 releaseFY26 = 4 quarters; FQ4 matches releaseFQ3-25 −$1.9bn: goodwill impairment
KioxiaReuters table, TrendForce, Blocks & FilesFY25 revenue ¥2,337.6bn and net ¥554.5bn reconcile with quarters3 quarters derived from totals (marked ≈). Quarterly operating profit not published in sources used
SeagateSEC filings, FQ4-26 8-KFY = 4 quarters; FQ4 matches 8-KFQ4-24 net > operating profit (non-operating/tax items)
Western DigitalSEC filings, FQ4-26 releaseFY25 and FY26 restated HDD-only totals reconcileCorrected: now starts FQ1-25 and uses continuing-operations net income (earlier version mixed in flash-era profit). FY26 GAAP net inflated by SanDisk-share gains

Korean and Japanese figures are converted to USD at each quarter's average exchange rate; hover any quarter to see the originally reported won or yen amount.

What happened

Why the stocks fell while earnings rose

No company has cut guidance. The selling is about what investors expect profits to look like in 2027–2028, plus a set of market shocks stacked on top of each other.

    The six reasons, ranked

    • Peak-earnings fear. Memory is the most cyclical part of semis. Margins of 75–87% are far above any prior cycle, and investors sell before the turn, not after it. Goldman's desk says peak-earnings worry is capping valuations. This is why the stocks trade at 4–8× run-rate earnings.
    • Supply is coming. SK hynix (₩100tn central-Korea plan, Yongin cleanroom early 2027, M15X pulled in), Samsung (₩140tn group plan), Micron (new cleanrooms in 2028) and Toshiba in HDDs are all adding capacity. TrendForce sees DRAM/HBM supply up 27% in 2H27.
    • China. CXMT reached ~8% of global DRAM revenue in Q1 2026 (Counterpoint), listed in July, and on 12–13 Oct said it has a 4F² cell design for DDR5 server modules by end-2026. That design packs ~50% more bits per wafer. It does not touch HBM, and US tool export limits still apply.
    • AI capex durability. Nvidia's reported ~$250bn backstop for an OpenAI project (circular financing), Meta reselling compute, and Anthropic's CEO calling for slower capability growth (14 Sep) all hit the AI-demand story that memory sits on.
    • Rates. The Bank of Korea hiked in July. US September CPI ran hot and odds of an October Fed hike jumped from 22% to 46% (LSEG). Higher rates compress cyclical multiples.
    • Flows. Samsung and SK hynix were about half of the KOSPI. Their ₩55tn of buybacks ran ahead of schedule and ended in early–mid October, foreign funds sold for five straight sessions, and the KOSPI hit sidecars and halts repeatedly.
    Outlook

    What the order books say

    Bull case: demand is contracted

    • Micron: ~75% of 2027 output already committed; most sales talks now about 2028. 26 multi-year customer agreements expected to cover >35% of revenue through 2030. CEO: 2027 and 2028 tighter than 2026, "no line of sight" to balance. $12.75bn in customer deposits.
    • HBM pricing: TrendForce sees 2027 HBM contract prices up 70–140%; Samsung is seeking more than double current HBM4 prices from Nvidia and Broadcom.
    • Near-term prices still rising: 4Q26 conventional DRAM contract +10–15% QoQ, NAND +15–20% (TrendForce, 30 Sep).
    • LTAs: SK hynix has long-term agreements with ~10 customers; Kioxia targets 50% LTA coverage of 2028 volume; SanDisk signed 5 more contracts since April; Seagate nearline capacity allocated through 2027.
    • Balance sheets: Micron $73.5bn cash vs $5.2bn debt; SK hynix ₩69.4tn net cash; Samsung ₩167.6tn net cash; SanDisk zero debt.

    Bear case: price, not volume, is the risk

    • Revenue growth is mostly price. At SanDisk two-thirds of the last sequential jump came from price, one-third from volume. When prices stop rising, growth stops fast.
    • Price ceilings: some LTAs signed after Q2 2026 cap further increases, so contracts protect volume more than margin.
    • Demand destruction: cloud firms are testing smaller HBM loads in custom AI chips; Nvidia is reportedly testing reduced HBM specs for Rubin Ultra. Consumer is already weak: SanDisk consumer revenue fell 32% QoQ, Samsung's phone unit lost money on component costs.
    • Execution misses: SK hynix Q2 revenue and operating profit missed consensus by ~5%; Samsung Q3 revenue missed by ~3%. At these levels "record" is not enough.
    • Sensitivity: halving expected earnings doubles the P/E with no price change. A 5× P/E on peak earnings is not cheap if earnings fall 50%.

    If revenues stay strong: a quick stress test

    Move the slider to assume how far annual profits fall from today's run-rate (latest quarter × 4). Positive values mean profits keep growing. The table shows the P/E at today's price.

    0%

    Reading it: at today's prices the memory makers are priced as if profits fall by roughly half or more within two years, which is what happened in every past cycle. The HDD makers (Seagate, Western Digital) trade at roughly 20–23× because their supply is tight and their pricing is more stable. If memory profits only drift down 20–30%, the stocks look cheap; if the 2023-style collapse repeats, they do not.

    Sources

    Where the numbers come from

    Research, not investment advice. Figures are GAAP / K-IFRS / IFRS as reported unless marked; "≈" marks values derived from reported totals or growth rates. Samsung Q3 2026 is preliminary (net profit not yet disclosed). SK hynix Q3 2026 and SanDisk, Seagate, WD, Kioxia September-quarter results are due in late October.